Statuettes and Limitations: Oscar Predictions 2014

I haven’t really been paying attention to the race this year (long story), and I honestly didn’t remember who was nominated for what, and I haven’t seen half of the films nominated, but here are my two cents on some of the bigger categories at the Oscars this evening.

Picture

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave

Will Win: Gravity

If Only: Her

Note: If American Hustle pulls an upset, I’ll slap every one of you, especially those so adamant on calling it a “screwball comedy”.

Director

Should Win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave or Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

If Only: Spike Jonze, Her or Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis or Harmony Korine, Spring Breakers

Note: This is representative of two things: What does it mean to have a directorial achievement? And why are we paying attention to art competing against art?

Actor

Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

If Only: Joaquin Phoenix, Her or Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

Note: If they gave Leo’s Oscar to all of his fanpeople, would that shut them up? No? Well, I tried.

Actress

Should and Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

If Only: Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha

Note: Blanchett made Blue Jasmine as equally her film as it is Woody Allen’s, and brought him the closest he’s ever been to making a horror movie.

Supporting Actor

Should Win: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Will Win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

If Only: James Franco, Spring Breakers or Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Pain and Gain

Note: “I’m so so so sorry for kicking a hole in your TV after Leto won, so sorry,” I said.

Supporting Actress

Should and Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

If Only: Scarlett Johansson, Her

Note: What do you mean the United Colors of Lupita isn’t an actual flag?

Animated Feature

Should Win: The Wind Rises

Will Win: Frozen

Note: All I want is for there to be a new little statuette in the shape of Totoro.

Foreign Film

Should Win: The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium

Will Win: The Great Beauty, Italy

If Only: We Are the Best!, Sweden

Note: How was Spring Breakers not nominated in this category? A) I’m pretty sure it was foreign to a majority who saw it and b) James Franco’s character is named Alien! How foreign can you get?

Original Screenplay

Should and Will Win: Her by Spike Jonze

If Only: Laurence Anyways by Xavier Dolan

Note: Thanks, Mr. Jonze, for helping me fall in love and get over the same person with your gorgeous film.

Adapted Screenplay

Should Win: Before Midnight, by Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave by John Ridley

If Only: Much Ado About Nothing by Joss Whedon

Documentary Feature

Should Win: The Act of Killing

Will Win: 20 Feet from Stardom

Note: What do you mean you don’t want to watch two hours of the guys responsible for the Indonesian genocide reenact their atrocities on camera? It’s as fun as watching Shoah, but shorter!